Now’s the Time to Book Summer Flights, As Uncertainty May Raise Prices
If you are planning to fly somewhere this summer, now is the time to book your tickets.
“We’re beyond what we call the Goldilocks Window at Going for when to buy summer flights,” Katy Nastro, a travel expert at the airline website Going, told USA TODAY in an email. “The best chance of getting a domestic tour deal is about 3-7 months, with 3 months being the latest you want to wait. Same for international summer travel, but with a slightly wider window of 4-10 months in advance to find the best place.”
The war in Iran adds uncertainty to summer travel, however. Reuters reported that jet fuel prices rose 15% last week, and that could mean higher ticket prices for those waiting to book.
Still, Nastro said, it’s an open question how much the war will affect airlines, even if it means higher fuel prices.
“Airline executives, such as Scott Kirby of United, are warning of increased fares due to the increase in oil prices, but just because oil prices are higher doesn’t mean fares will follow,” he said, adding that demand often plays a bigger role in determining airline ticket prices than fuel costs.
“We will probably see less people wanting to travel long distances this year if the country’s tensions are still high, which means that demand may ease. Sure, high oil prices increase the costs of airlines, but if travelers are not willing – or want – to pay more, airlines cannot push the fares too high without risking empty seats,” said Nastro.
A prolonged and protracted military campaign in the Middle East could cause serious financial and operational difficulties for airlines.
Deutsche Bank analysts warned of the potential consequences in a recent report.
“With no immediate relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground 1,000 planes while some of the industry’s biggest carriers could stop operations,” the report said.
Some analysts say that if prices continue to rise for a long time, it will inevitably lead to an increase in ticket prices.
“I’m sure the airlines will … look to pass on consumer cancellation charges (only if needed in the context of continued inflation),” Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker told Reuters.
Nastro said he has seen no signs that airlines are planning to reduce capacity yet, but added that for passengers, now is still the best time to book summer travel, despite all the political uncertainty.
“The best advice for people worried about summer prices is to look and book now,” she said. “The price of the flight is uncertain, but what we do know, regardless of what is happening around us, is that now is the window for better prices.”
Zach Wichter is a travel journalist and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York, and you can find him at [email protected].
This article first appeared in USA TODAY: Now’s the time to book summer flights, as uncertainty could drive up prices
Reporting by Zach Wichter, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
