Feeling Broke in a Steady Economy? Here’s What Happened

Inflation fell to 2.4%, the unemployment rate fell, and American employers added 130,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose reports economists consider the “gold standard” of data.

On paper, the economy appears stable.

But many Americans say they struggle to buy food, and even high-income earners feel “in survival mode.” Workers are clinging to their jobs, fearing they cannot afford to lose them. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since 2014 in January.

Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams said the gap between what people say about the economy and what the hard numbers say widened following the COVID-19 pandemic, then narrowed, and “hasn’t returned to normal.”

“This kind of post-pandemic puzzle has been with us for a long time and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be solved overnight,” Adams said. “It’s often a bit of a painful process for the economy to get back to normal after this really big shock.”

Economists point to a mix of factors. Prices remain much higher than before the pandemic, wage gains have not fully offset the rising cost of living for many households, and the labor market is not growing — features that Americans have seen.

Can government economic numbers be trusted?

Some critics have questioned whether the government’s numbers can be trusted after President Donald Trump’s decision to fire the BLS commissioner raised concerns about the agency’s independence and credibility last year.

Months later, however, there was no public evidence that the data had been manipulated, and Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s chief economic analyst, said that any tampering could be detected by independent forecasters and regular employees.

National economic indicators are estimates based on sample surveys, not a full census of all households and employers. The BLS updates its statistics when complete data becomes available. While monthly estimates may be off and low survey response rates may affect reports, economists say broad trend lines are generally reliable, especially when viewed in the context of other data.

“I understand, and I’ve been asked, if not criticized, for relying on macroeconomic data over the years when people don’t feel like it aligns well with their perspective,” Hamrick said. “But it is also true that big data is macro. It may be sunny in our area. It may rain in someone else. The truth of those two events do not conflict.”

The post-pandemic sticker shock never went away

Inflation is running at 2.4%, close to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, and price growth has slowed from last year. But inflation does not mean lower prices. It means that prices are rising at a slower rate than before.

In June 2022, inflation reached 9.1%, the highest rate in four decades. It remains high in 2021, 2022 and early 2023.

Since the beginning of 2021, consumer prices have increased by 22.7%, while wages have grown by 21.5%, a Bankrate analysis found in late 2025. Not everyone got a promotion. Wage growth for low-wage workers has slowed more than for high-wage workers, according to Atlanta Fed data.

“No one is talking about going back to the prices we used to do before that inflation,” said Dr. Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow in economics at the Pacific Research Institute. “We’ve lost that platform, and we need our revenue to accelerate to get it back.”

Since housing costs are typical for most Americans, it’s a sore point that isn’t fully reflected in the BLS’ Consumer Price Index. Although the index tracks the cost of rent, it does not directly capture mortgage payments or the difficulty many Americans have in trying to save for a down payment.

“Housing is one of the ways that families, especially low-income families, save and create wealth,” said Oxford Economics economist Bernard Yaros, adding that if housing becomes unaffordable, “it just puts pressure on people, and it upsets people, and I think it’s a difficult thing to handle.”

There is also a psychological aspect. Although other prices, including eggs and gasoline, have fallen, Adams said consumers tend to focus on how much the cost has increased.

Labor benefits disproportionately across industries

While monthly job figures sometimes beat expectations, as they did in January, they are still estimates and revisions are routine.

BLS revisions released along with the January jobs report, showed the agency revised its estimate for job growth in 2025 from 584,000 to 181,000, marking a meaningful decline from last year.

Economists describe the labor market as a “low-rent, low-fire” environment. Several factors are contributing to employer caution, including continued tax uncertainty and the adoption of artificial intelligence employment systems.

Americans’ experiences with the job market vary depending on who they are and what they do. Recent job growth has focused on health care and social assistance. Workers outside of those industries may face more difficult searches.

“It wouldn’t be fair for someone to look at what’s the lowest unemployment rate in recent history, 4.3%, and say that’s exactly the same as every worker in the United States,” Hamrick said. “This is a number that measures the entire workforce of the United States, which is many millions of people.”

Winegarden added that he understands that people know their economic situation, and sometimes it can differ from the trend lines in national statistics.

“Your individual economy is working, and if you’re having a hard time finding a job, the job market is tough,” Winegarden said.

Reach Rachel Barber at [email protected] and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

This article first appeared in USA TODAY: Feeling broke in a stagnant economy? Here’s what happens.

Reporting by Rachel Barber, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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