COLA Forecasts: 2027 Social Security Increases May Be Flat

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COLA Forecasts: 2027 Social Security Increases May Be Flat

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Social Security recipients hoping for a big cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, next year may be disappointed.

So far, the 2027 COLA is expected to remain flat at 2.8%, according to an early estimate by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a non-profit advocacy group. That’s the same adjustment receivers saw this year.

“A 2.8% COLA can provide some relief, but for many retirees it won’t sound like a big increase,” said Shannon Benton, executive director of TSCL.

Based on the standard payment, the 2027 COLA of 2.8% could translate into an increase of only $50 to $60 per month, Benton says, noting that rising health care costs — and especially Medicare premiums — could eat into the increase, if not completely negate it.

The group updates its COLA rates each month based on new inflation data from the Department of Labor. On Wednesday, the Ministry said that the annual inflation rate in February was 2.4%.

However, the Social Security Administration bases its COLA on a slightly different inflation metric, designed for clerical and salaried workers, known as the CPI-W. That rate was 2.2% in February.

COLA affects the monthly payments of more than 70 million Americans, including more than 53 million retirees.

When is the COLA announced?

TSCL’s figures come seven months ahead of the official announcement from the Social Security Administration. We won’t know until October what the actual 2027 COLA will be, so the March estimate will likely change.

The US government calculates the final COLA rate based on the CPI-W for July, August and September. Inflation rates for September are scheduled for release on Oct. 14, and the Social Security Administration usually announces the COLA later that day.

Due to unpredictable fluctuations in the inflation rate, when the measurement starts, there may be less accuracy.

One big question among analysts and senior Americans is how the Iran war will affect the COLA. Oil and gas prices have risen following the joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran that began two weeks ago. Those increased prices were not reflected in the latest inflation report – or COLA rates.

“Look at those oil costs,” said Mary Johnson, a retired Social Development and Medicare policy analyst, noting that the inflation rate used to calculate the COLA is more sensitive to changes in oil and gas prices than the general rate of inflation.

In addition, it’s unclear whether rising electricity prices will last long enough to affect COLA calculations later this year, meaning people will have to deal with increased costs now with no guarantee that higher benefits are on the way.

This blind spot reflects a longstanding criticism against the federal government’s method of calculating benefit increases. Advocates have long argued that despite annual adjustments, the payments are not keeping up with the rising costs of older Americans.

Retirees have been feeling the pressure, too. In a 2025 survey by TSCL, nearly 6 in 10 older Americans say they worry that inflation will increase their spending and erode their savings and retirement benefits.