Americans, Not Other Countries, Pay Trump’s Costs in 2025

American consumers and companies paid nearly 90% of President Donald Trump’s tax bill by the end of 2025, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The study adds to growing evidence that American families are paying the Trump tax bill, despite the president’s assertion that the financial burden falls entirely on other countries.

Trump’s taxes equate to a $1,000 tax increase per household by 2025, according to a Feb. 6 from the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. Families are expected to pay an additional $1,300 in 2026.

The tariffs are the largest US tax increase since 1993, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation. Taxes are taxes − but to whom?

On the campaign trail in September 2024, raising the tariffs, Trump told his supporters, “It’s not going to be a cost to you, it’s going to be a cost to another country.”

Trump repeated the claim on Jan. 30 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, writing, “Data shows that the burden, or ‘incidence,’ of costs has fallen significantly on manufacturers and foreign exporters, including large companies not from the US”

A New York Fed survey, published Feb. 12, suggests otherwise.

Trump’s taxes are generally a tax on Americans

By August 2025, 94% of import tariffs fell on American companies and consumers, according to the study. By November, the “pass” rate had dropped to 86%.

“Overall, American firms and consumers continue to bear the brunt of the economic burden of the higher costs imposed by 2025,” the researchers wrote.

The study confirms what many economists had predicted: That Trump’s tariffs would generally be a tax on Americans.

“The survey conducted by the New York Fed confirms what many economists expected – US consumers and businesses are paying most of the costs from the Trump tariffs,” said Wayne Winegarden, chief economist at the Pacific Research Institute, a free market think tank.

The Wall Street Journal picked up on the report in a February 13 editorial, saying, “No matter how much President Trump insists that his tariffs are charging foreigners to enrich the US, economic studies keep showing that Americans are actually footing the bill.”

By the end of 2025, prices have added about 0.7 percentage points to US inflation, according to a November paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research. In other words, without the tax, the rate of inflation in September is likely to drop from 3% to 2.3%.

Tariffs raised the prices of many imported goods

Trump’s tariffs have raised the prices of many imports, an effect reflected in January’s inflation report. The price of household goods and equipment increased by 3.8% from January 2025 to January 2026. The price of furniture and bedding increased by 4%. Tableware and flatware prices increased by 5%.

Payments are complicated. Actual costs are divided between exporters in one country and importers in another.

The New York Fed provided this example:

Assume that a foreign seller charges $100 for a product, and the US government imposes a 25% tax. If the exporter does not lower the price, the importer pays a $25 tax, raising the price to $125. That means 100% of the tax falls on American consumers and corporations.

In the same example, assume that the retailer responds to the tax by lowering the price to $80. Now, the importer pays a tax of $20, and the total import price is $100. The exporter effectively withholds all taxes.

As it turns out, most exporters didn’t cut prices much in response to Trump’s tariffs. A 94% pass rate means the average exporter offset the 10% tax by reducing prices by 0.6%, or 6 cents for every $10.

As exporters and importers experience the impact of Trump’s tariffs, their impact decreases all the time. Some shippers have cut prices. American companies sourced cheap products from other countries or took part of the money themselves.

In the end, about 20% of Trump’s prices reached actual consumers, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research paper.

This article first appeared in USA TODAY: Americans, not other countries, pay Trump’s prices in 2025.

Reporting by Daniel de Visé, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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