Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence

We’re in an exciting phase of innovation right now.

Tons of overreactions. All kinds of predictions are being thrown around. No one knows what will happen but many scenarios seem plausible.

Some people think it could be the greatest technological breakthrough in history. It will solve diseases and create so much abundance that we will not know what to do with ourselves.

Others are concerned about creating a god in a box that could lead to dire consequences – biological weapons, deepfakes, mass exodus, etc.

Then there is the group that thinks AI is nothing more than a parlor trick.

This is the only group I disagree with. I think AI will have a huge impact on society, some good and some bad, like most technological advances.

Let’s go through some of the potential pros and cons of AI:

Pro: AI will guide the automation of repetitive tasks. The productivity gains can be huge.

Disadvantages: Anthropic CEO Daio Amodei said AI could erase half of all entry-collar jobs.

The good news is that AI has not had a noticeable impact on the overall labor market yet. The participation of early-age workers has fallen further than it was last seen in the 1990s:

There are not that many job vacancies but there have never been mass layoffs.

Unfortunately, it’s probably coming.

Pro: Agent AI is coming. In the not too distant future, you will have an AI personal assistant in your ear/pocket, perhaps through your phone and computer.

You will assign tasks and your personal assistant (which still works by purchasing this) will organize it for you, check different results, correct errors and give you the finished product.

And you won’t need to supervise this process.

It will be wild and make many parts of your life much easier to deal with.

Disadvantages: Fraud will prevail. Fake videos, fake phone calls, fake emails, phishing scams – AI will give criminals and hucksters all kinds of new tools to take advantage of people.

It won’t be good as we work on this.

Pro: AI never sleeps. It doesn’t matter. No family problems. Once you know how to use it properly, this technology will save you a lot of time at work and in your personal life.

Disadvantages: Most of the people have become very dependent on technology. AI will make this worse. Will humans have a relationship with their AI app like Joaquin Phoenix did to Him? Maybe.

Will more people interact with AI than go outside for sun, exercise and fresh air? Most likely.

Will AI be used by others to waste time watching slop? Definitely.

Social media has been bad for people’s mental health. AI may make it worse.

Pro: AI may be coming at the right time as we face a growing fertility problem (via WSJ):

This is not just a US thing. Globally:

As nations become richer, health care improves, life expectancy increases, and infant mortality decreases, people have fewer children. It is a sign of progress.

But it can also hinder economic growth.

We will need higher productivity in the workforce in the coming decades. We will need robots. Who else will take care of the 70 million baby boomers?

The labor force revolution may not be good yet but we need AI to fill the hole of declining global fertility rates.

Disadvantages: Have you seen the Terminator? What if we have a Sky Net situation where AI decides to take over.

James Cameron himself said this is worrying.

Do I actually believe that AI is a threat to humanity? No it isn’t.

Is it scary that there is a non-zero chance of this happening? I would say so.

Pro: Everyone now has access to a genius-level genius who can explain anything in seconds.

When you ask one of the LLMs a question the answers sound magical. Now you have the ability to better understand any topic you want to know about.

This will lead to better decisions from people who know how to use these tools.

Disadvantages: AI will make some people dupes. Cheating in exams is already a big problem.

You can use it to learn or turn off your mind completely by letting it do the thinking for you. Cheating in exams is already a big problem.

That’s not a great result but it will certainly play to certain groups of people.

Pro: We have seen a wave of innovation in scientific development, drug discovery and disease treatment as AI accelerates research capabilities.

Disadvantages: The imbalance will be worse. The gap between the rich and the have-nots will widen. Many people will be left behind through no fault of their own.

This is something that our politicians should have planned seriously. I have no hope that our leaders are ready for what is to come.

The chances of AI causing more social unrest are high.

Pro: AI will likely make society safer in many ways as it is used to provide checks and balances and reduce human error.

Disadvantages: AI is expensive to create. Data centers are very expensive. AI requires tons of power.

The final decision?

I really don’t know how this plays out. My best guess is that AI will disrupt millions of jobs, improve productivity, give us all personal assistants, and have countless unintended consequences.

The economy is extremely volatile so it must also create new jobs, but the transition period can be painful for millions of people.

Love will be great again hate on AI for years to come.

Michael and I talked all things AI and more in this week’s Animal Spirits video:

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Further reading:
The Human Toll of Artificial Intelligence

Now here’s what I’ve been reading lately:

Books: