Have 401(k)s Really Grown by $30,000 Since Trump Was Inaugurated?
Has American retirement savings increased since the inauguration of President Donald Trump? That was the claim made Tuesday in the president’s State of the Union address.
“Since I took office, the average 401(k) balance has increased by at least $30,000. That’s a lot of money,” said President Donald Trump. “Because the stock market did so well, setting all those records, your 401(k)s went up.”
The White House did not confirm the claim citing a source. While 401(k) balance there is rising and even noting new records, industry data points to an increase that may be smaller than what was stated in the State of the Union address.
According to financial firm Fidelity, the average 401(k) balance was $144,400 at the end of September 2025. That number is up nearly $12,700 (or 9.6%) from the end of 2024, when the average balance was $131,700.
While we don’t have day-to-day data on the number of Americans’ 401(k)s, Fidelity’s widely used quarterly report on retirement savings trends provides a baseline for comparison. In this case, Money compared the average balances from the fourth quarter of 2024, about three weeks before Trump was sworn in, to the third quarter of 2025, the most recently available data.
It is not clear whether the president was talking about average balances or average balances. “Typical” usually means the median, although Americans’ 401(k) balances are often reported as averages. (Average balances will be lower, since most 401(k) accounts hold lower rates.)
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How much are 401(k)s since inception?
Shares have continued to rise since Fidelity last updated its 401(k) average data through Sept. 30. Since then, the S&P 500 has returned about 3.7%, suggesting that 401(k) balances will be slightly higher now.
In his speech Tuesday night, Trump aimed to take credit for the stock market’s recent performance, with a nod to the retirement balance sheet. “The stock market has set 53 all-time records since the election — think about that, one year — to boost pensions, 401(k)s and retirement accounts,” he said.
The president’s claim of a $30,000 increase in 401(k) balances appears to have been overstated.
Since its inception, the S&P 500 has returned about 14.9%.
Even if 401(k) balances increased the same way — which isn’t true since the 401(k) contains a mix of bonds, funds and stocks — that wouldn’t be enough to increase by $30,000, based on Fidelity’s standard balance calculations.
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A 15% increase on $131,700 — the average balance just before Trump took office — would be just $19,755, more than $10,000 short. People may have increased their contributions, yet Fidelity reported no evidence of that in the third quarter of 2025, when it reported that 401(k) savings rates “remained flat at 14.2% for the second quarter in a row.”
