Here’s What the Supreme Court’s Tax Ruling Says About Consumer Prices

A landmark Supreme Court decision that slashed President Donald Trump’s import tariffs could bring savings to consumers in the coming months, economists say.

But the savings could be wiped out if Trump imposes a new round of import tariffs, as he vowed to do in a tepid news conference after the high court’s ruling.

When aid arrives, consumers can expect a major impact on the categories of goods most affected by those costs, including glassware and tableware, furniture and a wide range of household goods.

Trump’s tariffs have raised the prices of many imports, an effect reflected in January’s inflation report. The price of household goods and equipment increased by 3.8% from January 2025 to January 2026. The price of furniture and bedding increased by 4%. Tableware and flatware prices increased by 5%.

“We think tariffs have pushed up consumer goods prices by about 2% overall,” said Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics.

Will the tariff decision bring lower prices for consumers?

Where will prices go from here? Much depends on whether the Trump administration responds to the high court’s decision with new tariffs, using some legal authority other than the one the court struck down.

At a news conference hours after the decision, Trump vowed to find a new legal basis for the tariffs.

“We have other options,” Trump said. “Great options. Could be more money.”

Trump then said he would sign a new executive order authorizing a 10% “worldwide tariff” on top of the remaining import duties after the ruling. He cited a federal law that allows for a temporary tax on imports due to trade deficits.

Even before Trump spoke, many observers predicted that the president would look for a way to roll back his taxes.

“My bet is that corporations will still pay taxes, under a different law,” said Alex Jacquez, policy and advocacy officer at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank.

If the Trump administration doesn’t introduce new tariffs, a scenario that now seems unlikely, “it means we could see, in the coming months, some reversal of the tax-related price increases we saw last year,” Pearce said. “Consumers may see a slight increase in their take-home pay.”

How much have costs increased consumer prices?

The heated debate is about how much prices have already risen.

A February report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that American consumers and companies are paying nearly 90% of the cost of Trump’s tariffs by the end of 2025.

That research impressed me. The White House’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, criticized the report, saying its authors should be “disciplined.”

Another analysis, by the nonprofit Tax Foundation, found that Trump’s tariffs equate to a $1,000 tax increase per household by 2025. Families were expected to pay an additional $1,300 in 2026.

That balance may change in light of the new court decision. The Budget Lab at Yale suggests that consumer prices will rise by 0.6% in the short term, a cost of about $800 for the average US household. Without the Supreme Court’s decision, Budget Lab said, prices will double.

Whatever their impact, tariffs have not caused the inflationary crisis that many observers feared. The annual inflation rate for January reached 2.4%.

The Supreme Court decision lowers the effective US tax rate from 12.8% to 8.3%, Pearce estimates.

The Budget Lab at Yale puts the new rate at 9.1%. It remains the highest US tax rate since 1946, despite last year’s policy changes, according to Budget Lab.

The Supreme Court decision does not apply to all taxes enacted by Trump in 2025. We do not include, for example, taxes on certain industries, such as steel and automobiles.

Where are the prices still?

With the court’s ruling, the remaining U.S. tariffs — those that weren’t lowered — “fell the most on metals, autos and electronics,” Budget Lab reported.

Soon, thousands of American importers may be able to earn refunds on some or all of the estimated $150 billion they paid in taxes.

It’s hard to see how those refunds would reach consumers, said Pearce and other tax experts. If there are refunds, they may go to importers who have paid taxes.

In fact, some businesses “have already said they will raise prices this year because of last year’s costs,” Jacquez said.

This article first appeared in USA TODAY: Here’s what the Supreme Court’s tax ruling has to say about consumer prices

Reporting by Daniel de Visé, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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