Are Trump’s $2,000 Tax Refund Checks Still Coming?
In an extensive discussion no New York Times recently, President Donald Trump revisited the topic of $2,000 tax-deductible renewal payments, an idea he teased in a series of social media posts and interviews in November.
When asked ua Times reporter when the American people can expect to see those payments, the president first asked, “When did I do that?” He then said the checks could arrive “by the end of the year.”
Earlier, he said the payments would come out “probably in the middle of next year, a little later than that.”
Is Trump really going to send Americans $2,000 checks?
While the White House has repeatedly emphasized that other countries are bearing the costs of Trump’s tough tax policy, economists generally agree that American consumers and businesses are bearing the cost. The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center calculated that the rates will cost the average family $2,110 this year.
Reviving the discussion about a “rejuvenation” tax or “dividends” is one of several recent ideas Trump has floated recently, along with 50-year mortgages and a 10% cap on credit card interest rates.
Scholars and economists have characterized the proposals as a tacit acknowledgment that affordability — a key campaign issue — remains difficult for many, and that Americans’ financial concerns could have high political costs for the GOP.
Skeptical economists say Trump’s numbers don’t add up. The government collected $195 billion in taxes last fiscal year and is expected to take in between $300 billion and $350 billion this year. At the time, the watchdog group the Committee on a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Trump’s proposed defunding could cost as much as $600 billion.
If the payments were annualized instead of in one-time distributions, they would increase the deficit by $6 trillion over the next decade, the group estimated. And if the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs, the government could be forced to return money already collected from importers, further draining the federal coffers.
Is the president allowed to withdraw money?
Trump told the Times he didn’t believe he had to go through Congress to send people’s payments.
Almost everyone, including members of the president’s own administration, seems to think otherwise. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, suggested congressional approval would be needed in December. Face the Nation interview, saying that releasing the payments “will depend on what happens with Congress.”
Kimberly Clausing, a non-resident fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says the law is immutable: The law is the only way for the White House to send people money.
“Only Congress has the power of the fund, so Trump couldn’t issue these payments without congressional approval,” Money told via email. “This is very clear; it is not a matter of subtle legal interpretation.”
It doesn’t happen again. The president will have to overcome opposition from some – including his own party – who respect or ignore the idea entirely, and previous attempts at legislation have not borne fruit. Trump previously expressed support for the bill introduced by Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., for $600 in payments, but that bill did not advance beyond the Senate Finance Committee.
Last month, Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., has introduced a bill that would wrap up tax payments in the tax code by increasing the standard deduction — though it wouldn’t mandate sending Americans checks.
Cornell University Law School professor Michael C. Dorf says there’s a good chance the executive branch could simply reverse another tax break or transfer that’s already been approved and commit to the spending. In a recent blog post, Dorf noted that the $1,776 million in “hero allowances” that Trump announced would go to members of the military was actually a federally mandated increase in helping members with housing subsidies.
“That’s just a matter of sales,” he said in an interview with Money. “It’s not accurate in any real way.”
Stephen Myrow, managing partner of Beacon Policy Advisors, also says there is no legal way for Trump to send a fiscal stimulus without passing Congress. He suggests that this is a political statement rather than a serious policy proposal.
“It’s a matter of messages, not a matter of policy,” he said. “Trump likes to talk about this.”
Getting tax refund checks will be ‘hard work’
Deciding who is eligible to be paid, how the program will be structured and the use of the exemption will be a daunting task, to say the least. Trump specifically said the highest earners would be exempt but did not provide details on what the income limit would be or if it would be exempt from the highest earners. (The Ministry of Finance did not respond to a question from Mali.)
Extracting that information can take time and money.
“It’s a daunting task,” Myrow noted. “You need the IRS, and the IRS is already underwater right now,” he said, with tax season about to begin and agency levels reduced due to layoffs.
Dorf speculated that the White House might finally agree to discuss the tax breaks in the One Big Beautiful Bill Congress passed last year.
“The easiest thing you can do is target the reduction of the tax liability,” he said. “I think if there’s anything they’re going to do other than declare victory by pointing to something they’ve already done, it’s probably going to be something in the tax code.”
In a November interview with ABC News, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the tax breaks included in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill could be considered tax breaks.
“That’s a political exercise… rebranding,” Dorf said.
Whether or not it’s enough to win over voters is the $600 billion question.
More from Mali:
Tariff Checks: Will Trump Send You a $2,000 ‘Dividend’?
What’s Next for Trump’s Taxes After Supreme Court Oral Arguments
New Bill Proposes $600 ‘Rebate’ Renewal Checks
