$5 Gas Refund? How the Strait of Hormuz Chaos Comes to Your Commute

Eventually you’ll get used to filling your tank without blinking. With the national average for a gallon of regular transit just under the $3 mark recently, your commute hasn’t been affordable in a long time. But if you think those prices are guaranteed to last forever, you’re ignoring the Middle East.

Currently, the world’s most important oil chokepoint is the powder keg. Retaliatory strikes and growing tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran put the Strait of Hormuz in the crosshairs.

If this small waterway gets blocked or becomes too dangerous for commercial traffic, those digits at your local faucet will start spinning very quickly. We could easily see a return to the painful $5 gas we experienced in 2022.

Here’s exactly what’s happening, why it’s important, and what you can do about it.

The math behind the chokepoint

If you’re not into geography, the Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf to the open sea. It’s not just a cruise line. It is the backbone of the global energy market.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, about 20 million barrels of oil flow from the crisis every day. That’s about 20% of global fuel consumption. There are not enough other pipelines in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates to make a difference if that water is impassable.

When the supply of oil is reduced by a fifth overnight, the price of crude oil rises. And since the price of crude oil is the single biggest factor in what you pay for gasoline, the rise in global markets reaches your local gas station within days.

What does the shutdown mean to you?

We no longer get most of our oil from the Middle East. Because of domestic production, the US only imports a small portion of its crude through Hormuz.

But oil is a commodity of global value. If China, India, and Japan suddenly can’t get their oil from the Persian Gulf, they will start raising oil prices everywhere, including here at home.

Disruption doesn’t just make your commute more expensive. It makes everything more expensive. Diesel is needed to run the trucks that deliver your groceries and fuel to fly the planes on your summer vacation. If travel costs go up, companies will pass those costs on directly to you.

Related: See “5 Ways the US-Israel Attack on Iran Could Hit Your Wallet.”

How to protect your wallet right now

You can’t control international conflicts, but you can control how much fuel you burn. Here’s how to protect yourself from the next price shock:

• Take care of your car: An engine that needs maintenance or underinflated tires will ruin your gas mileage. Check your tire pressure this weekend. It takes five minutes and pays off quickly.
• Change your driving habits: Accelerating, aggressive acceleration, and idling are the fastest ways to waste fuel. Slow down and go through red lights. You’ll be surprised how far the tank goes when you stop driving like you’re in a race.
• Use gas refund apps: Apps like Upside or Checkout 51 give you cash back on every gallon you buy. It may only be a few cents per liter, but it’s one of the smartest ways to save money on a faucet that adds up quickly over a year.
• Plan your trip: Stop making four separate trips to the same side of town. Combine your tasks into one loop. A warm engine runs better than a cold one, and driving fewer miles means fewer trips to the pump.

We’re not at $5 gas yet, and a full, long-term shutdown of the strait is still a worst-case scenario. But the danger is real, and the markets are already jittery.

Don’t panic, but start paying attention to your fuel consumption now. If prices go up, you’ll have the right habits to handle the hit.